Brexit means no Brexit: here we go again

Right about now, when I should be busy with other stuff, I’m hopping up and down in fury over the duplicity of Theresa May, her ministers, and her unelected legion of EU puppets pulling strings in Whitehall. Remainer’s might roll their eyes at the mere sight of the word ‘unelected’ (“oh, here we go again, another Brexit moron”), but here’s the fact – a fact widely admitted by ministers and MPs – they did not see the document until it was finished. All 585 pages of legal clauses put together with no input or awareness from or by the elected government. Minister were given a copy and – unread – basically told by the prime minister – this is the deal, if you want to keep your job, support me, agree to it. Maybe there was coercion, or bribery (place in Lords for this, wink, wink), or pleading, whatever she needed to do, she did. And took the goal posts in with her.

The following started as a short comment on Facebook, then, it grew. The level of betrayal our prime minister is planning, has planned for over two years, is intolerable. I don’t know about you, but I will not sit idly by and do nothing.

I will get round to my local MP (who is Labour), but I am of a mind to send edited/customised copies to every Tory and Labour MP in the country. I don’t have time for that, but I’ll do what I can. I started with Mrs Victoria Aktins, MP for Louth and Horncastle, Minister for Crime, Safeguarding & Vulnerability and Minister for Women.

You can find your MP here: Parliament.uk: mps

You can find out how your own MP voted here: BBC news: EU vote: Where the cabinet and other MPs stand
( www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35616946 )

A quick Google will also tell you how people voted, and your own MP’s voted in the referendum, and in the last general election. Remember though, it’s not simply Brexit vs Remain, UK vs EU, it goes far deeper. For instance 95% of Labour MPs are ardently in favour of staying tied to the EU, while up to 60% of Labour voters want to leave. 70% of Tory MPs said they fully supported Brexit, but with their bums firmly secured in their tax payers paid, all expenses claimed seats in the house of Commons, well, the evidence suggests otherwise. Parliament, of all parties, no longer represent the rank and file people of the UK.

Some 70 per cent of Conservative seats and 61 per cent of Labour constituencies voted to leave the EU and they will not trust us again if we remain in the European Union.

Cite: Andrea Jenkyns: The public will discard us, and rightly so, if Brexit is thwarted

I have added (directly below), my email to my own (Labour) MP.


Hi Conor,

As there is no comment on your website about Mrs May’s Brexit deal, I thought I’d lob an email your way.

I appreciate you can’t put a vote of no confidence in about Mrs May, any more than we voters can, but you have a vote on her deal and what follows. Rather than deluge your email box with a wall of text I’ll give you a link to what I wrote in general on my blog, and what I wrote to another MP.

I don’t expect it, but if you can share it, or my thoughts with other MPs, that would be great, equally, I don’t expect a quotable comment in reply, but still, I’ll do my bit.

The link is [ ackadia.com/general-interest/brexit-means-no-brexit-here-we-go-again/ ].

The Brodie’s Notes version is, if this goes through, you will have a riot on your hands. I fully appreciate you are Labour, not Tory, and that your view of the ‘deal’, being from county Armagh originally, is probably different again, but here goes:

We were offered Leave/Stay.
We chose Leave.
We were promised Leave means Leave.
Now, once you untangle Mrs May’s lies, we are being told the option is stay (Brexit in name only), or stay (no deal, the referendum never happened)

We are (still) told there will be no second referendum (or third), but we were also told about an ever moving/vanishing set of red lines, that Brexit means Brexit, that No Deal is better than a bad Deal. The press likes to describe here as ‘resilent’, as ‘stubborn’ if they are being less generous. She’s neither, I feel. She’s fixated, tunnel-visioned, (pro remain to her core) and a compulsive liar. (That said I think Mr Corbyn is as shady as anything, but I don’t believe he is a manipulative liar.)

Now here’s here’s the thing, according to my reading, nearly 95% of Labour MPs are pro-remain, with only 11 voting for Brexit. If this deal of her’s goes south (and even if it doesn’t) there will be no winners. I think everyone is agreed the Tories will be finished. You can’t wholly alienate 17.4 million people and expect no retaliation in the polls, no matter how long we have to wait. This, of course, applies equally to Labour as a party. The idea of a forced General Election terrifies the Tories because not one of them will stand a good chance of keeping their seat. And the same applies with the Labour party.

Consider locally. 58% of the town, 54,357 voter, said we’d like to leave the EU, thank you. As you can imagine, being told our vote doesn’t matter or count by the people we voted for, well, it doesn’t sit well, at all. There’s this matter of trust. Why should we vote for you if you feel this way about us?

e.g.
Some 218 Labour MPs said they would vote Remain while just 11 backed Leave.
480 MPs said they would be voting Remain, including 184 Conservatives
All eight Liberal Democrat MPs intended to vote Remain, along with all 56 SNP MPs, all three Plaid Cymru MPs, all four Sinn Fein MPs and all three SDLP MPs.
( BT: How MPs voted in the Referendum )

e.g.
Conor McGinn (Lab, St Helens North) wants the UK to remain in the EU.
Cabinet ministers (24 for remain; six for leave)
( BBC news: EU vote: Where the cabinet and other MPs stand )

Well, you get the idea. More than half the country voted to Leave the EU and between all the main parties – largely regardless of the wishes of their local electorate – there is a wall of resentment and defiance that we, as a country, don’t see eye to eye. The STRONG feeling we are about to get stitched up by all parties in Westminster is making a lot of people antsy.

Thoughts?

Regards

Paul


Hello Mrs Atkins

Firstly, I am not a constituent, though I did use to live in Coningsby (directly opposite Saint Michael’s Church actually). (Coincidentally, I’m also from Lancashire originally myself).

Anyway, while I don’t expect a response, I’m going to ask anyway. According to the Grimsby Telegraph today ( grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/find-out-what-your-northern-2242599 ):

Louth MP Victoria Atkins is a Tory Home Office minister and will vote for the deal or else face being sacked from her front bench job.

A couple of points of concern here:

Firstly your constituents (which at one time would have included me) overwhelmingly voted to leave the EU. By 70.7% in fact, according to the Louth Leader (www.louthleader.co.uk/news/politics/eu-referendum-east-lindsey-overwhelmingly-votes-to-leave-eu-1-7447577), a figure which I believe was the second highest in the country, with only nearby Boston being higher. The conservatives campaigned on the promise of honouring the referendum, of honouring Brexit. Your seat in the house of common was partly or wholly bought on the promise of delivering that. Your position on the front bench is therefore bound to how your electorate sees you.

Returning a moment to the Grimsby Telegraph, they currently have a poll going, asking “Do you think Theresa May has secured a good Brexit deal?” At the time of writing (11.39am) 56% believe this is a bad deal, 24% that she’s done the best she could, and 20% think we’d be better of staying in the EU. Regardless of the people’s vote (which, let’s be honest, is the “loser’s vote”), and allowing polls fluctuate all the time, it does indicate a continued belief in Brexit (means Brexit).

Mrs May, however, in a complete volte-face, and betrayal of the majority electorate, apparently with the aide of Whitehall and the EU (but not backbenchers, nor even front bench ministers like yourself) has produced this mammoth deal at the last minute and declared “My deal or no Brexit“.

How, pray tell, do you think voters feel? How do you genuinely think voters – whether for or again staying in the EU – will react to such a clear and carefully planned betrayal?

Now, to my main point, vis a vis that you “will vote for the deal or else face being sacked from her front bench job.

I am not asking to you publicly (or privately) put in a vote of no confidence in Mrs May (though it would please many), I am not asking you how you will actually vote on the deal (though anything but a rejection would be a betrayal of your local electorate), what I am asking is this:

Is the Grimsby Telegraph correct, that you – a lawyer – and the other front-benchers going to vote according to the demands of Mrs May – regardless of your true evaluation of said deal, just to keep your job?

As I say, I’m not expecting an answer; this is for your conscience, though how you and the other ministers and MPs vote will unquestionably change this country for generations to come.

My feeling is anything less than a no deal/WTO Brexit will be a disaster for the UK, and while a “no Brexit” fudge will leave us (for the moment) no better nor any worse in terms of trade etc. etc., the damage to democracy and the chaos of subsequent local and general elections will be profound.

I am not a lawyer, nor economist, nor politician, just some blunt northerner, but I am very, very smart. “Exceptionally gifted” is the term they used, and all this campaign of FUD by the government, and by media is just making me angry. Me, and the other 17.4 million people that voted to leave the EU are not stupid, we are not ignorant, no matter what the elitist establishment in Whitehall, Westminster and Fleet Street think of us.

The latest FEAR tactic is that we /might/ run out of medicine, that people /might/ die. (Compliments of the Mail and a complete turn on their readership), that poor Mrs May has diabetes and needs to get her insulin from a Dutch company. First, of, I SERIOUSLY doubt that if insulin was to run out that the likes of Mrs May would ever be affected. Secondly, I have end-stage kidney failure, I’m not terminal, though I am being prepared for dialysis, without my medications, within three days I would start to decline, within a fortnight, perhaps a month I would probably be dead without emergency treatment. For me, for my children and any possible grandchildren, I’d take the risk. If it were stated categorically that I would face that, I would still vote for a WTO and take my chances. The mendacious EU is a train-wreck waiting to happen!

A few years ago – before the referendum – I wrote this (here):

b)** Money Markets
The stock market? The financial establishment is based on forecasts, on GUESSES (however well educated). That will bounce up and down in a knee-jerk reaction anyway. Maybe the ‘in’ vote will add 200 points to the FSTE, maybe the ‘out’ will cost 200 points, with doom and gloom headlines of how the referendum “wiped billions off shares and devastated pension pots”.

HOWEVER, any change, up or down, WILL settle. It always does. The markets abhor any uncertainty or any change; it makes the money people jittery, irrationally so. Regardless of the claims, regardless of in or out, it will return to its average shortly after. Any BIG NEWS in the days following is there to sell papers, to make political points. It is divorced from the everyday reality of humanity.

c)*** The EU itself
In voting to support them, the largely unelected, unanswerable mandarins controlling the EU, the power brokers and deal makers in the IMF, etc., will NOT be grateful, it is not in their nature (psychology 101). Far from it, they WILL find ways to punish us for daring to attempt to leave. In the quiet halls of power, they will whisper to the French, the Dutch and anyone else that considers a referendum, that considers leaving their grasp. We can do this to you, too, they will warn.”
(cite: ackadia.com/general-interest/brexit-in-or-out-eu-lose/)

And every point I listed was correct. It was correct then, and it will remain correct regardless of the vote for Mrs May’s deal. I appreciate you may have a different view, but all over Europe people are waking up to the fact that the EU is an abusive state. It manipulates, overrides and punishes any nation that deviates from its plan. Look at Ireland and the Lisbon treaty: they said no, the EU said, “Vote again until you say yes”. Look at how they treated Greece, how they are treating Italy now, how they are treating some of the eastern bloc countries now.

The papers and politicians love to call this a ‘divorce’, then talk about staying, how they, the EU will change. It is frankly delusional to hope that a person (or entity) that for all their life has been controlling, bullying and manipulative (all the traits of a sociopath) will ever change. Anyone experienced in domestic abuse will tell you, there comes the point in a relationship when the pain, suffering, neglect and risk reach the point where you have to walk away. You either change the locks and get a restraining order and hope they don’t turn violent, or you bundle the kids and whatever you can carry in a cab, and you run. This is where we in the UK are at now, I feel.

So, returning once more to the vote. We have heard from alarmist MPs that this deal is (quote) infinitely worse than staying in the EU and by the same MP that no deal is infinitely worse again. FUD. Hysterically so. Is the “right honourable gentleman” so ignorant that he has no understanding or concept of the word ‘infinite’, or does he believe, perhaps, that outside the safe bubble of the house of commons we peasants wouldn’t understand such grand words, that we’d fall for his panic?

When we voted, we were told the options were leave – or stay. Now we are told the options are stay (via Brexit in name only), or to stay (no Brexit). Any mention of no deal and WTO are blankly – or hysterically – refused.

Here’s my take on it, for your consideration.

Option a): Deal

Mrs Mays deal, which has been universally panned by all factions and all parties.
It “mathematically” cannot succeed. (Apparently)
If, however through FUD, bribery, promises of peerages, whispered threats (or, in the press a conspiracy theory of frankly treasonous plot crash the pound to scare MPs into accepting it) or whispered threats, she gets it through, two things will happen. Firstly the British public will know – absolutely, with cold, furious certainty – know that they have been stitched up. Secondly, the EU has tied us in knots, will crucify us as a nation. For a generation, we will be the whipping boy for Brussels. Any other country that mutters about dissent, they will turn the screw on us and say, in private, “this, this we will do you as well.”

Option b): No Brexit

No Brexit and the referendum was for nothing. Democracy has no meaning in this country. You will have anarchy and quite possibly riots, and the papers, fickle buggers that they are, will turn from supporting Mrs May to fanning the flames because it sells papers and money is everything. Have to keep the shareholders happy. It will get very dark, very fast, and come the next local elections, the next national elections, apathy will mean the lowest turnout in history, and the votes will be for fringe parties like UKIP, DV party, independents. The Tory party will be history; you would not survive the bile of 17.4 million angry voters. Given 95% of Labour MPs are pro-remain, and the majority of their largely northern voters are anti-remain, they will get a kicking too.

Options c): 2nd referendum

Another referendum (Mrs Mays says that will never happen, but she also said no deal is better than a bad deal, so we, the voters, can’t believe a word that comes out her mouth any more).

This is standard EU practice: Vote again until you get it right.

Let us be clear here; it is not “the people’s” vote; it is the most vocal “loser’s” vote. The minority that didn’t get their way in a democratic election and are having a 2-year long tantrum. That were happy for a referendum when they believed they would be win, but are in denial since.

Firstly, see Option B for the results, because it would be the same, except the vocal Remainers would be insufferable because they got their own way, which will only make the Brexit camp even angrier.

Secondly, there is the widespread belief, especially by the likes of Guardian columnists, that Brexit: Stupid; Remain: Smart!

If you look at a typical IQ score bell curve, it’s fairly consistent the world over, no nation, no race deviates much from this curve. You can get pedantic over whether the test used SD15 or not, whether it’s based on Cattel (which caps at 160), or Raven (which caps at 180), or whether IQ is even a meaningful measure, but it all pans out the same. Roughly 95% of the world are in the range of 70 (low intelligence) to 130 (high intelligence) and even at the latter end of the scale – which includes doctors and Ph.Ds – you are considered ‘smart’, but not ‘gifted’.

Narrow it to a big bunched up clump of 85 to 115 (average to above average intelligence), and you are still talking 68% of the population. This range includes everyone from semi-skilled workers, to white-collar workers, to university graduates with a first class honours degree.

Controversially though, many Remainers would have you believe that anyone who voted to leave the EU is cognitively impaired (i.e. well below average). Question for all these “smart” Remainers:

Barely 15% of the population are considered ‘low intelligence’; this drops well under 5% for the politically correct term of ‘cognitively impaired’ (as opposed to all the other labels being used). Yet you consider that the 17.4 million people that voted to leave the EU, that over 50% of the voting electorate and more than 25% of the entire population are ‘retarded’. How stupid would you be to believe this disparity? (Note that this works both ways, for Brexiteers who think Remainers are all thick).

Option d)

No deal, exit on WTO terms.

Now, I am not a politician, nor an economist, or lawyer, or even successful entrepreneur (I tried, I went bankrupt, c’est la vie), but neither am I stupid, or gullible. And there’s another 50 million or so in the country just like me.

There’s a lot of praise for the prime minister, about how ‘resilient’ she is (I’d say fixated myself, but that’s a personal opinion), but there is very little talk from politicians about how resilient we are as a nation.

A good 2,000 years back Italy (aka the Romans) invaded us. We absorbed them, and moved on. Then the Danes attacked. We absorbed them too, moved on. Then the French attacked, we absorbed them. Then less than a century ago the Germans attacked us, yet here we are. We are, genetically, a bastard breed of all that’s good and all that’s bad in Europe, with added input from all the other countries in the world. Stuff happens, we roll up our sleeves and get on with it. To suggest it would be any different in the face of something as trivial (relatively) as a no deal break with the EU and, for a short time, changing who we get our shopping from is patently absurd. It insults us as a globally aware nation.

So, a no deal.

The claim we’ll run out of medicine? Are you seriously trying to tell me, to protect trade margins, that the EU would put an embargo on the UK for life-saving drugs? That the EU would rather murder UK citizens (and EU residents here) than allow us to ‘win’? That the pharmaceutical giants would simply roll over meekly and accept the loss of billions of dollars worth of trade to appease the EU? How stupid do you think we are? And how stupid are you if you believe that would happen?

Even if it did, even if the EU maintained it’s stance in the face of pressure from the UN and global hostility, we would STILL persevere. Sure, maybe some would die, which the press would love, but ultimately we’d get the drugs from the US or another country. Maybe we’d pay more, maybe we’d get a better deal, but the notion of people dying in the streets for weeks, months on end is ludicrous. It would also paint the government and the civil service as criminally incompetent, as they have had over two years to plan for the eventuality.

Cars? We have loads of car manufacturers in the UK, Nissan would probably love a no deal. Can you imagine it? Germany, following orders from Brussels, surrenders their biggest market, who y’ gonna call, Ghostbusters? Or the nearest Nissan dealership? In the event of a no deal, contrary to alarmist Remainers rhetoric, the EU would fold like a deck of cards under the unrelenting pressure from Audi, from BMW, from Citroen.

Food? The same. With unrelenting pressure from French, Spanish, German and Italian wine growers, from French cheese merchants, from all the other food products we import.

The financial markets: They are so fickle it is almost a joke. This very jittery nature is so easy to manipulate via the press, via social media, via a carefully – or a badly worded – quote or sound-byte whispered in the right ear. Look at the billions George Soros made betting on the markets in just this way (a game he is still playing). Look at Ratner’s, one minute it was a national chain, the next, trash. There’s even a name for that: the Ratner Effect.

The product didn’t change, just perception, spread and exasperated by voracious and amoral media moguls. Unlike Ratner’s, the financial markets will bounce back. Any manipulation by unscrupulous sources is a lie by any other name. Show a graph of share price for a day or a week, and OMG THE MARKET CRASHED! Show the exact same price over a year, over 5 years, it’s barely noticeable, it’s been higher, it’s been lower.

market-shareprice-manipulation
Above is the long term share price for a game company – and a snapshot following an announcement investors didn’t like. (Something like making $4.22 instead of $4.23 per share that quarter). How it’s presented alters the greater truth.

manipulating-currency

Again again with the pound to euro rate, as above.

We can easily survive without them. They, however, cannot survive so easily without us. Even if they don’t relent and quickly agree an interim deal, we’ll manage, we’ll muddle on because it’s what we as a nation do.

So, yes, vote how you will, in good conscience, but please, when you do, don’t try and say we are doing it for the good of the country if your only thought is for your cosy job. Please don’t take the stance, we know better, because really, you don’t. Most of Parliament, whether Whitehall workers or MPs, are career civil servants, To assume a white collar job, or directorship in some academic think tank makes you better, smarter, wiser than the other 66 million people in the UK is the height of hubris.

Paul

One thought on “Brexit means no Brexit: here we go again

  1. What an excellent read this was I agree with every word mentioned and think that your words should be forced onto the media channels nationwide so the ‘ Thickos’ like myself who voted leave can see just how selfish our MPs are, to the point of corruption. Not only that those spoiled brat remainers ( If they were being honest, which is doubtful ) would see the true meaning of the word DEMOCRACY. Finally thank you for putting pen to paper as this exactly how I have been feeling and it became my comfort blanket to realise I was mot alone.

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