Brexit by the stats

Just read a great quote, from ex Labour MP Gisela Stuart (a Leaver):

I’ve never gone through a voting process where the losers demand of the winners that they explain themselves.

On that note I’ll start with a promise by David Cameron, before the referendum:

David Cameron’s Final Decision Speech

Your decision, nobody elses. Not politicians, not parliaments, not lobby groups.

It will be the final decision. So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave, would merely produce another stronger re negotiation and a second referendum in which Britain can stay, I say think again.

The referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice.

When the British people speak, their voice will be respected, not ignored.

If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another negotiation and another referendum.

(Final decision speech is also on Facebook)

Also quoting David Cameron, before he quit in a huff:

The British people have made a choice. That not only needs to be respected – but those on the losing side of the argument, myself included, should help to make it work.

Cite: Gov.uk: EU referendum outcome: PM statement, 24 June 2016


That statement explained for the wilfully blinkered and undemocratic

If you are a remainer / remoaner, or even just vacillating – which should ESPECIALLY APPLY TO democratically chosen (and democratically removable!) MPs – be assured that everyone was given a stark warning that the referendum result would be final and despite ‘politics’ on both sides of the debate, despite a whole bunch of outright lies in Project Fear from Downing Street, and despite the heavily biased government shaking the magic money tree and finding millions of pounds of taxpayers money to spend of pro-remain leaflets, the result was STILL to leave.

Observation about MPs hypocrisy:

If they win a seat in a general election, even by a majority of 1 vote, regardless of the number of votes counted, it is binding and they can’t be removed for 5 years.

Yet they lose the EU referendum by 1,261,501 votes and democracy goes out the window; these same people want either the vote ignored, or another referendum that lets them win.

[ Hint:
He said that means there will NOT be a ‘people’s‘ vote, but that this will be (WAS) the vote of the people, by the people, for the people. Welcome to democracy! ]

What you – and MPs especially (with their love of a ‘first past the post’ system) – have to remember is this: While, yes, in terms of votes (52:48) it was close, in terms of regions if was heavily pro Brexit, pro Leave. 408 out of 650, or if you prefer 62.8% of constituencies voted to LEAVE.

You might also want to take the time to watch this EU video on Facebook (in German, with subtitles) by Dr Alexander Gauland, chair of the German AfD faction: Brexit must not be used to punish Britain. It is also available on youtube, without subtitles:


Comparison of MPs Brexit (2016) vote to support for Mrs Mays WA deal, verses their constituents.

wdt_ID Constituency Leave % Remain % 12/11 vote? Stance MP (2017 ~) Party Majority Majority %
1 Aberavon Against Remain Stephen Kinnock Labour 16,761 50.40
2 Aberconwy 53.38 46.62 Against Remain Guto Bebb Tory 635 1.80
3 Aberdeen North Against Remain Kirsty Blackman SNP 4,139 11.20
4 Aberdeen South 32.33 67.67 Against unknown Ross Thomson Tory 4,752 10.70
5 Airdrie and Shotts Against Remain Neil Gray SNP 195 0.50
6 Aldershot 57.90 42.10 For unknown Leo Docherty Tory 11,478 23.40
7 Aldridge-Brownhills 67.80 32.20 For Remain Wendy Morton Tory 14,307 35.60
8 Altrincham and Sale West 38.47 61.53 For Leave Graham Brady, Sir Tory 6,426 12.20
9 Alyn and Deeside Against Remain Mark Tami Labour 5,235 11.70
10 Amber Valley 65.34 34.66 Against Leave Nigel Mills Tory 8,300 18.10
Constituency Leave % Remain % 12/11 vote? Stance MP (2017 ~) Party Majority Majority %

Notes:

1) This is still a work in progress, it will take several days to finish, at least.

2) Columns:

i) Constituency
ii) Leave votes (%) in EU 2016 referendum
iii) Remain votes (%) in EU 2016 referendum
iv) MPs expected vote for the Withdrawal Act deal on Dec. 12th (to be revised).
v) MPs reported stance, as at EU 2016 referendum
vi) MP for that seat following the 2017 General Election (e.g. Aberavon is Stephen Kinnock)
vii) MP’s party
viii) Party/MP’s majority in the 2017 General Election (as number)
ix) Party/MP’s majority in the 2017 General Election (as percentage)

3) Conditional formatting:

For Leave %, green background if >50 supported Leave
For (expected) Dec 11th vote, red background if FOR the deal.
For MPs 2016 stance, red background if REMAIN
For majority in 2017 general election, red background if marginal seat (<5%)

4) While there is a clear and intentional bias towards a WTO Brexit by the author (me), there is no bias in the data, (errors and omissions excluded). If you disagree with the data (not the stance), send me links, citations, evidence to the contrary and I will correct it.

5) While elections are divided into 650 constituency seats, the referendum was divided into 382 aggregate areas. Not sure why this was, but I imagine it just made things easier somehow. I am assuming Mike’s data (see link below) is reliable but I haven’t validated it yet, hence including tables for both the BBC’s (limited) analysis and the government’s own data.

6) Next update will include complete integration of 2016 referendum results (as opposed to just Conservative seats at present)

Data sources include:


Comment and analysis

Firstly I suggest you want the EU video (from 1997) on this Facebook page: Don’t be fooled again. Do not give Britain to the EU

We need a new party first, with people we can (maybe) trust.

Over half the country are pro-Brexit. Yet nearly all MPs are pro-remain and couldn’t give a fig about their voters!

For instance, comparing how MPs voted in 2016 (with reference to those still in a seat), and how they feel about the deal now:

In the 2016 referendum all but 10 or voted 11 Labour MPs voted to remain – and only 7 of those are still in the party after the 2017 GE.

All SNP voted remain

All Lib Dem voted remain (but that party really is a joke IMO!)

All Green voted remain (all one of them, that is)

All UKIP (ah, dead, no MPs, funny old world)

Most of the Independents voted remain (4 out of 6)

Most of the Tories votes remain (153 remain, 119 leave, (with 41 unknown, undeclared))

Only 1 DUP was remain, the rest leave.

Now compared that to how MPs are likely to vote for Mrs May’s deal (according to the last poll in the papers)

15 of the above Remainers are against the deal.

However, 39 pro-Brexit MPs support the deal! (Something ain’t right there!)

As for the deal, DUP are against the deal (‘cos obviously)

Nearly 100% of SNP and Labour are pro-remain and want to stop and cancel Brexit, but are against the deal for politic reasons/gain – to de-seat the Tories rather than ‘cos they don’t like the deal.

I’ve not done the maths but it’s widely supported that nearly 70% of Labour stronghold are pro-Brexit, but their MPs couldn’t care less ‘cos many are career politicians parachuted in to win seats, not locals native to the area.

Ignoring the unknowns (44) and pro-Brexit Tories (90), let’s consider how their constituents feel:

Pro remain and/or pro deal MPs

In 6 constituencies over 70% of voters want to leave the EU. 70% ignored and overruled by 1 person!

In 40 constituencies 60 to 70% of voters want to leave the EU.

In 40 constituencies 55 to 60% of voters want to leave the EU.

In 48 constituencies 50 to 55% of voters want to leave the EU.

175 Tory MPs are pro deal, pro EU, (only 41 towns area with them) (For pro-Brexit MPs only 17 constituencies voted remain.

Basically, despite the fact that the EU referendum was 52/48, over 70% of all constituencies south of Scotland want out of the EU and their own MPs have told them to **** off (P.S. Vote for me in the next GE, I love my pay and perks).

Tally of Tory Brexit votes verses their MPs stance:

Tally of Tory Brexit votes verses their MPs stance

See also: TRAITORS: 70% Of Tory MP’s Backing Sell-Out Deal Represent Leave Constituencies (References: Sky news: Brexit deal: How is your MP expected to vote? (which has some slick dynamic graphs))

See especially: BBC EU referendum results and EU referendum: The result in maps and charts.

They work for you!

A REALLY useful web site is They Work For You. There are other similar sites, but this is extensive. You search via your postcode (by default) and it tells who who they are, how they vote and so forth, as you drill down. For instance, for my local MP (Conor McGinn), seen from my perspective, he:

Has never voted for proportional representation (fair enough, it’s a Marmite topic)
Voted for a wholly elected House of Lords (good man!)
Voted for the referendum to happen (good man!)
Appears to want more funding for victims of domestic violence (again, a good thing)
Wants more EU integration (hmmm…)
Strongly supports higher benefits for (genuinely) long term ill and disabled. (Decent)
And appears to strongly support Plain English in official papers, tax bills, legal documents etc etc (a very good thing.)

Generally a decent bloke, has replied to my emails, though pro EU, and Labour. A typical MP, really. Not bad in himself, but we don’t agree on everything, nor should we.


Electoral Commission: 2016 EU referendum results.

The full list I used for the table above is available via the Electoral Commission: EU referendum results. Or you can simply download the EU referendum results data in full (CSV).


NOTE: While the BBC data below is possible of use to some, it is only partial: Of the 9,291 UK wards, the spreadsheet has only 1,283 populated, the rest are empty cells, thus the table below is rather bereft of data and is only included for completeness!

BBC's 2016 EU Referendum data, by ward WHERE KNOWN

wdt_ID Ward Counting Area Leave % Remain % Leave # Remain #
1 Abbey Merton 26.54 73.46 1,373 3,800
2 Abbey Cambridge 34.58 65.42 1,642 3,107
3 Abbey Lincoln 48.17 51.83 1,972 2,122
4 Abbey Wood Greenwich 54.23 45.77 3,031 2,558
5 Abbeydale Gloucester 60.26 39.74 2,481 1,636
6 Abbeymead Gloucester 53.11 46.89 1,962 1,732
7 Acklam Middlesbrough 56.95 43.05 1,835 1,387
8 Ackworth, North Elmsall and Upton Wakefield 64.96 35.04 6,523 3,518
9 Acocks Green Birmingham 55.09 44.91 6,299 5,135
10 Acton Central Ealing 32.19 67.81 1,635 3,444
Ward Counting Area Leave % Remain % Leave # Remain #

Data for above obtained via the BBC: Local voting figures shed new light on EU referendum. (Searchable)
[ Download the BBC’s EU Referendum ward level data ]


A word on Safe and marginal seats, and electoral reform

Safe seats
Safe seats are constituencies where the local voters are so set in their ways, so hidebound, that the incumbent party knows they barely have to canvas or advertise when it comes to local or general elections, they know they have probably won before it starts, so why bother. This is why you see in the press comments about, for instance, Labour ‘strongholds’; their majority is so great there’s little point in other storming their base. It is also why, if a party loses a stronghold, loses a seat they thought they couldn’t possibly lose, it is headline news and rattles the party in question to the core. That said, as Dr Alun Wyburn-Powell points out on the Democratic Audit web site, “Safe seats” are only really safe as long as rival political parties neglect to target them.

Safe seats are also the biggest argument there is for proportional representation. Under this system if you get 10% of the votes, you get 10% of the seats, making it very fair. Which is sadly why we are never likely to get it, it restricts political to a two party system – to Tory OR Labour (with a coalition is need be). No-one else gets a look in and they like it that way because they hold all the cards, and even if they lose the election, maybe in another 4 years they (and no-one else) can get back in; in the meantime they can sit back, wait, and troll the current government in the House of Commons.

Stupid really, in a way, because consider this from Channel 4, over the 2017 general election:

In this year’s General Election, the Conservative Party only won 42 per cent of the overall vote, compared with Labour’s 40 per cent.

But they ended up with 318 parliamentary seats, while Labour only won 262 seats.

Meanwhile, the SNP got around twice as many votes as the Green Party. But the Greens still only have one MP, compared to the SNP’s 35 MPs.

Cite: C4: How would parliament look under proportional representation

It’s still a two horse race for the most part, but under a balanced system (instead of first past the post) the Tories lead drops from just over 50% of seats (with DUP help) to just a 2% lead. It would also leave 18% for the other parties, so about 117 wild card seats.

The BBC of all places helped point out how ridiculous the current system is: Election 2015: Does every vote matter in a parliament of so many safe seats?

…225 constituencies that has not changed hands electorally since before 1950. Thirty of those pre-date 1900.

… 368 seats are considered so safe by the Electoral Reform Society that it has already called the winners.

25.7 million voters live in safe seats.

Thirty districts so set in their ways that constituents haven’t voted for another party in over 100 years! (Our town is like that, because “Me dad, an’ ‘is dad always voted Labour, so I will”. When my children were old enough to vote they asked me how they should vote! I told them to research and make up their own minds.

Marginal / Swing seats

In contrast, marginal seats are where all the bitter political fighting goes on. It is where a 5% swing or less in votes decides the seat. These can decide who is in parliament, or if needs to be a coalition party. The lead can – and has been – as narrow as one single vote. Just a few people here, a few people there decide the fate of the nation, whether they bothered to vote, or not. Bit like the Brexit referendum, really: 4% is marginal, but it is still a clear democratic win, which in terms of individuals across the country was over a million votes. 4% is narrow, 1,261,501 is not, to put it into perspective.

Consider the 2017 General Election results. According to The Sun, there are more than 50 seats that were won with a majority of less than five per cent. Those 50 seats would have give us a Labour coalition party – not something I’d want, but the current government is worse than useless as well, so… As you can see, they could barely form a government even with the DUP’s help – they had 318 and needs 326 seats, yet the margins below show they still barely made it.

Apparently of the 650 seats in parliament, in the last general election 179 had a majority of under 5,000 votes, 100 of these had less than a 2,500 poll lead and of these 50 of them held on to their seat by under 1,000 votes. One held on to their seat by a single vote!

For instance, here’s a selection:

Conservative:
Bury North (0.84%)
Croydon Central (0.31%)
Derby North (0.09%)
Gower (0.06%)
Vale of Clwyd (0.67%)

Labour:
Dewsbury (2.71%)
Enfield North (2.35%)
Hove (2.37%)

Lib Dem:
Carshalton and Wallington (3.17%)
Orkney and Shetland (3.59%)
Southport (3%)

SNP:
Berwickshire, Roxborough and Selkirk (0.6%)
East Dunbartonshire (3.95%)

Inews.co.uk (and the BBC) gave an even better insight to how close some polls were:

North East Fife – 2 votes
Perth and North Perthshire – 21 votes
Newcastle-under-Lyme – 30 votes
Southampton Itchen – 31 votes
Richmond – 45 votes
Crewe & Nantwich – 48 votes
Glasgow South West – 60 votes
Glasgow East – 75 votes
Arfon – 92

See also:

Parliament: GE2017 marginal seats and turnout

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