Brexit? In or out EU lose?

Addenda update 9th May 2017

To all the French that voted for Emmanuel Macron on Sunday: you got played! Whatever follows next is on you!

Whatever my misgivings (and bias) about his Rothschild banking history, and regardless of the fact, on paper, he’s a better presidential candidate (in terms of skillset) than Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, the latter, Ms Pen, was my favourite. She at least would have given you the vote – the CHOICE – over EU, instead you have a Brussels loving puppet running the country. One that will NEVER let you vote against the EU.

And here’s why you got played – by Brussels and by Juncker:
They interfered with your elections and you were too scared/naive/hidebound to see through it. It was no different that the Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt campaign by Cameron and co in the UK, but it had a malignant difference. It carried an absolute direct threat to the French voters.

It was about as subtle as a brick, to be frank, as Brussels hoists gross Brexit ‘bill’ to €100bn. This timely announcement amounts to interfering with a foreign governments elections for personal and political gain. Covered over by claims (true or not) that Putin and the Russians where doing the same and such bad people…

Just think about it a moment. Just a day before the French vote for their future, the Brussels machine repeats the rhetoric that it will devastating crush any who divert from their plans!

Here’s a snapshot of the evidence:

Just prior to the final day of the French elections, this:

FT, May 3rd, 2017: Brussels hoists gross Brexit ‘bill’ to €100bn

Mail / Der Spiegel, May 6th, 2017, Angry Merkel slaps down Juncker for inflaming Brexit talks

It said some members of Mrs May’s Government ‘fear that Merkel and Juncker want Brexit to be a disaster for Britain for educational reasons: all Eurosceptics on the Continent should be shown the dire consequences of their dissidence’.

This is subtle, but meaningful too, in a devious sort of way:

Mail (via Reuters), May 5th, 2017 : Influence of English is fading, says EU chief Juncker

Slowly but surely English is losing importance in Europe, Juncker told a conference in Florence before switching into French and drawing applause from his audience of EU officials, local leaders and Italian students.

Juncker, who hails from Luxembourg, speaks several European languages fluently and regularly uses English at international gatherings. He said he also wanted to speak French to be better understood in France ahead of Sunday’s final presidential election round.

Similarly, Express, May 4th, 2017: Obama throws support behind Emmanuel Macron as ex-president interferes in second election. BARACK OBAMA has made a last-minute intervention in the French presidential election as Emmanuel Macron faces Marine Le Pen in the final round of voting.

I don’t know about the French, but I didn’t appreciate that git interfering with our Brexit vote when he was President, it’s even worse when he’s been kicked out of office and is still meddling with other countries elections.

Independent, May 6th, 2017: ‘Make no mistake, there will be no Brexit negotiation’, says man who took on EU

Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has described Theresa May’s Brexit negotiation tactics as “precisely wrong”.

… Brussles is a technocracy that is desperately clinging on to its own exorbitant illegitimate power.

In an interview with The Times, the politician argues that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will have to make an “example” of Britain.

“Britain will have to be made an example of, any recalcitrant government that steps outside the modus vivendi will be crushed. You are going against a combination of a bureaucracy in Brussels and politicians who feel the ground under their feet is increasingly brittle, like Angela Merkel.

Mr Varoufakis said his meetings about Greece’s future had been filled with frustration and that his hopes for reaching a compromise were ruined because the EU “loathes democracy”.

He said there was no way Europe would allow a deal that left Britain in “a better place”

Telegraph, April 26th, 2017: Jean-Claude Juncker’s response to the French presidential election shows exactly what is wrong with the EU

Since there is another round of voting to go, it astonishing that unelected bureaucrats in Brussels have taken it upon themselves to endorse Emmanuel Macron.

Politico, 25th April, 2017: EU leaders: “We’re not meddling by backing Macron”
Enthusiastic endorsements in Brussels break with practice of not interceding in national elections.

As EU leaders rushed to praise Emmanuel Macron, they were confronted with questions about how appropriate it is for Brussels to intervene in a national election amid fears of a backlash from French voters.

Mail, March 20th, 2017: Outrage as Juncker boasts that no-one else will want to leave the EU after they see how badly the UK is punished for Brexit EU commission president says ‘example’ of Brexit will discourage other states.

Addenda October 2016

Not formalised, yet, but played out pretty much as I expected. For example, this from the Daily Mail, 7/Oct/2016: That numpty Juncker, and others, have said as much and worse since the referendum, firing up hate and anger – exactly as predicted!

"We’ll punish the UK for Brexit, says Hollande"

Britain will be made to ‘pay’ for leaving the EU, Francois Hollande has warned.

The French president said Britain should be punished for Brexit as a warning to other nations.


(My Original post starts below:)

Read this today: However we vote, the elites will win the EU referendum. It sagely warns that, "whatever the slimy croupiers of the mainstream media urge, it’s the house that invariably wins."

Seriously, people, it’s not that hard. Here how it will go:

If we vote to stay in the EU (or if it’s rigged, with the same result!) do things settle down? No, because:

a) Millions more immigrants* enter this country
b) The FTSE** etc., in a kneejerk reaction, may – temporarily – go up, adding billions to the shares index (for the short term).
c) The (unelected) EU mandarins and controlling autocrats*** WILL punish us severely!
d) (all the rest of the arguments)****

If we vote to leave the EU, do things settle down? No, because:

a) Millions more economic migrants* will still enter this country.
b) The FTSE** etc., in a kneejerk reaction, may – temporarily – go down, knocking billions from the shares index (for the short term).
c) The (unelected) EU mandarins and controlling autocrats*** WILL punish us severely!
d) (all the rest of the arguments)****

Let’s look at these in greater detail.

a)* Immigration

In, we leave our doors wide open to millions more – literally – millions of economic migrants that will continue to flood into the country, Officially it’s around 330,000 a year, unofficially, with illegal immigrants, it is possibly well over half a million a year. And there is nothing we can do about it. We simply, physically and logistically, cannot built or support the infracture for these numbers, nor can Germany or any other countries receiving such large influxes.

Out, we can curtail future input somewhat but – regardless of the media hysterics by both sides – we cannot morally, logistically, nor, perhaps, legally, slam the door shut and boot out a few million people! It’s just never going to happen. Most, if not all, those that are here will remain here and, if they get citizenship, will, in time, legally be allowed to fetch their families over.

My view? At least with the Brexit vote we have time to plan, to develop. It’s not racism or rocket science, it’s simple, pragmatic, common sense. If – as the government admits – only 330,000 people a year (net) are entering the UK, where are they going to go? To London where the rents and house prices are astronomical and still rising all the time? To a new town? Let’s say a new town, one for 330,000 people – that’s about the size of Wigan, Wakefield or Chester. Let’s go with Chester and all of West Cheshire combined, population 332,000. We are not talking about buying up a few farms to build this, that’s 353 squares miles (226,000 acres), 46 wards and 96 parishes, 8 train lines… Or the Metropolitan Borough of Wigan, population 321,000, a lesser 72 square miles (46,500 acres).

According to Farmers Weekly, arable land averages £10,000 an acre – that’s £500 million – and you want it in one mass. Then you need the entire infrastructure: roads, water, drains, power lines and substations, telecom lines, etc. Then need homes, flats, etc. Let’s assume four people to a house; that’s 82,000 houses (at just £100,000 each that’s still over 8.2 billion quid! Then you need hospitals, several schools, council offices and depots, and myriad services (e.g. refuse collection, police), walk-in centres, doctors and dental surgeries, shopping malls, etc. Never mind the rest, you are pushing way past a 25 billion pound investment / development that needs unprecedented logistics – and it HAS to be ready in under 12 months – before the next 330,000 immigrants enter. Anything less stretches resources to breaking point – which IS the case already for councils and boroughs across the country.

b)** Money Markets

The stock market? The financial establishment is based on forecasts, on GUESSES (however well educated). That will bounce up and down in a knee-jerk reaction anyway. Maybe the ‘in’ vote will add 200 points to the FSTE, maybe the ‘out’ will cost 200 points, with doom and gloom headlines of how the referendum "wiped billions off shares and devastated pension pots".

HOWEVER, any change, up or down, WILL settle. It always, always does. The markets abhor any uncertainty or any change; it makes the money people jittery, irrationally so. Regardless of the claims, regardless of in or out, it will return to its average shortly after. Any BIG NEWS in the days following is there to sell papers, to make political points. It is divorced from the everyday reality of humanity.

c)*** The EU itself

In voting to support them, the largely unelected, unanswerable mandarins controlling the EU, the power brokers and deal makers in the IMF, etc., will NOT be grateful, it is not in their nature (psychology 101). Far from it, they WILL find ways to punish us for daring to attempt to leave. In the quiet halls of power they will whisper to the French, the Dutch and anyone else that considers a referendum, that considers leaving their grasp. We can do this to you, too, they will warn.

In voting out, they will do the same. The only difference is we will have more control of our laws, our borders. They will foam and gnash; they will – unquestionably – seek vengeance. It’s petty and pathetic, but it’s in the nature of control freaks to lash out if they cannot get their own way in everything. ‘If we can’t have you, no-one will.’

Regardless of the vote, the EU mandarins WILL (still) try to make an example of us. This a lose-lose scenario, with a two-tail variable. With baited breath the French, Dutch, etc. will see how we weather it. THIS is what Brussels fears. Not us, not the loss of billions in payments, it is the fear of their schemes unravelling. If we weather it, as many believe we will, other countries will demand their vote too. This isn’t the disbanding of Europe, it’s not a world-ending event, it’s taking the power away from a bunch of elitist sociopaths, from corporate lobbyists and fiddling politicians, from Brussels, and returning it to the sovereign nations. Local and market demands will return to dictating laws, regulations and economic migration, not a bunch of clueless, uncaring, elite, utterly self-serving autocrats!

d)**** all the other arguments

Given the number of lies Cameron and Osbourne are spreading, the orchestrated campaign of FUD (liberally dosed in ‘could’ and ‘might’ get out clauses) tells common sense, face validity that something is off about the whole thing! Not that the Brexit and leave campaigners aren’t playing free and loose with ‘facts’ but the ‘In team’ are playing dirty. To the utter disgust of many (including pro Europe ministers in all parties) they (Cameron and Osbourne) are pulling in the likes of Obama (who added up to $5.3 trillion to the US debt) and Christine Lagard (a close, personal friend of Osbourne and the head of the IMF who is under investigation for a €400 million fraud and corruption charge) to tell us how it’s best for us to vote. Then they used over £9 million of taxpayers money to send pro-EU, scaremongering leaflet to every household.

Moving on to business and jobs and all the other spuriously banded FUDs (from both sides). Sorry, it’s all political bullshit – all of it. Yes, the markets will react, but they will settle down. In the end, day to day life will not change, our pensions won’t evaporate; our houses won’t be worthless; no-one will invade. Suppose we leave, will all the trade and business and investment in the UK stop? Will all the money people leave? Not A Chance! For all the ‘leaders’ (and I use the term with all the contempt the designation deserves) will rant, at the end of their pathetic, self-indulgent tirades, money wins out. The true decision makers – regardless of whether they are shadowy conclaves, troikas, or CEO’s of multi-billion dollar corporations – will shrug, say, "C’est la vie" and carry on. They already have plans that are years, decades into the future; in or out makes no difference, ultimately.

Rather like the hypothetical town above, you cannot just plonk it down; you cannot have a knee-jerk reaction and throw trillions of dollars worth of business out the window in a hissy fit. It’s a ludicrous notion.

Consider this article in the Guardian: Revealed: 9% rise in London properties owned by offshore firms:

Forty thousand properties across London are owned by secretive offshore companies, an increase of 9% over the past 10 months, the Guardian can reveal. (… Over 100,000 across the UK).

Assume a conservative average value is a million pound each, that’s £40,000,000,000. The true figure, with large developments and prime real estate, could easily take that into the hundreds of billions, possibly trillions. You really think that people with that much capital tied up in the country will walk away because we aren’t in the EU club? That level-headed business people will give up on trade and business and all other relationships with us when we are still willing and eager to continue trading with everyone in said club? Pursue this question with every other company that has heavily invested in the UK, or that relies heavily on trade with us or has a vested interest though family and friends.

In summary:

So, if we leave the EU, what then? Well, a) we get a little bit more control over our laws, b) we get a little more control over our borders and c) we weather any and all storms, as we have for the past few thousand years, and emerge stronger! Either way, we remain part of the G7, part of NATO, part of Europe, et cetera; it is simply the bureaucratic madness, the morass of red tape EU regulations and other draining costs we would be freeing ourselves from.

(For the record, if any think I’m anti-Europe, I hold dual British-Canadian citizenships and while I’ve lost most of the fluency through lack of use, I have, at one time or another, studied and/or taken college courses in Spanish, French, Portuguese, Latin, Arabic and, currently, Dutch! Plus smatterings of Italian, Norwegian and even Esperanto (it was the 80’s, what can I say!))

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